The EUR/USD currency pair traded monotonously and uneventfully on Wednesday and Thursday. After reaching the Murray level "2/8" at 1.0498, the price neither corrected upward nor moved significantly, instead consolidating sideways. The euro couldn't even settle above the moving average, which remains very close to current price levels. This leads to the first conclusion: buyers are absent from the market.
This comes as no surprise, as we've been highlighting throughout the year a long list of reasons why the euro is overbought and should only decline against the dollar. Yes, the downtrend began later than expected, but market movements are notoriously difficult to predict, let alone their timing. It's important to understand that price movements depend primarily on market participants, particularly market makers, and no one can precisely predict when a new trend will begin.
The downtrend persists, with no signs of it ending anytime soon. This week, no notable events in the Eurozone or the US have left the price stagnant. However, the fact that the price remains static, even amidst an information lull, suggests it is merely waiting for the right moment to resume its decline.
Corrections are not always necessary for maintaining a trend. Yes, corrections should happen at least from time to time. However, let us remind you that significant movements on higher timeframes, such as a 1,000-pip decline, may appear as strong trends on the 4-hour chart but are routine movements on the weekly chart.
We expect the euro's decline to continue without a meaningful correction. Once the price overcomes the 5th level, the target of 1.0400 becomes more apparent. Since the beginning of the year, we have predicted a decline to the 1.02–1.04 range, possibly even reaching parity. On the weekly timeframe, a flat pattern remains, but breaking below the 4th level would confirm the end of the flat and signal a breakout from the lower boundary of the range. In such a scenario, a drop to 1.0000 could still be considered a positive outcome, with the price potentially targeting its last low near 0.9500.
The 5-day average volatility for EUR/USD as of November 22 is 81 pips, considered "moderate." For Friday, the pair is expected to move between 1.0405 and 1.0567. The higher regression channel is pointing downward, confirming the global downtrend. The CCI indicator has briefly entered the oversold area, signaling a possible correction, though this correction was weak and already completed. A new bullish divergence has formed, warning of another potential correction. However, the price has yet to rise above the moving average.
Support Levels:
- S1: 1.0498
- S2: 1.0376
- S3: 1.0254
Resistance Levels:
- R1: 1.0620
- R2: 1.0742
- R3: 1.0864
Trading Recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair continues to move downward, and we maintain a bearish outlook for the medium term. The market may have already priced in most of the anticipated Fed rate cuts, leaving little room for a sustained dollar decline. Short positions are recommended if the price remains below the moving average. Targets are 1.0405 and 1.0376. Long positions should only be considered if the price moves above the moving average, targeting 1.0665 and 1.0742. However, we currently do not recommend long positions to traders.
Explanation of Illustrations:
Linear Regression Channels help determine the current trend. If both channels are aligned, it indicates a strong trend.
Moving Average Line (settings: 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and guides the trading direction.
Murray Levels act as target levels for movements and corrections.
Volatility Levels (red lines) represent the likely price range for the pair over the next 24 hours based on current volatility readings.
CCI Indicator: If it enters the oversold region (below -250) or overbought region (above +250), it signals an impending trend reversal in the opposite direction.
