empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Key documents
Social Responsibility
27.11.2024 12:03 AM
NZD/USD: Preview of the November RBNZ Meeting
Open trading account Open demo account

On November 27, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will conclude its final meeting of the year. According to most experts, the RBNZ is expected to cut the interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 4.25%. This is the baseline and most anticipated scenario, and it is unlikely to provoke significant volatility in the NZD/USD pair. However, this does not mean the November meeting will be uneventful. On the contrary, the New Zealand dollar ("kiwi") will likely enter a zone of price turbulence following the meeting.

This image is no longer relevant

There is a slim possibility that the central bank could opt for a smaller 25-basis-point cut due to the implications of Trump's victory and the upcoming trade war with China. While highly unlikely, this scenario would provide strong support for the kiwi. Conversely, the RBNZ may signal additional steps toward monetary policy easing. This latter scenario seems more plausible and has not been fully priced into the market.

The green light for a 50-point rate cut was provided by New Zealand's inflation report published in mid-October. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Q3 slowed to 2.2% year-over-year, within the RBNZ's target range of 1–3% for the first time since early 2021. Although quarterly CPI rose by 0.6%, it fell short of the anticipated 0.8%. This sequential deceleration in inflation for seven consecutive quarters supports a more aggressive easing policy and opens the door for another rate cut in early 2025 if inflation remains within target.

Another argument in favor of the dovish scenario is the slowdown in the country's economy. New Zealand's GDP shrank by 0.2% in Q2 (quarter-over-quarter) and slowed by 0.5% year-over-year. The Statistics Bureau attributed this weakness to reduced spending in retail and housing and declines in wholesale trade and forestry.

The third quarter figures will be published in the first half of December, but judging by some indirect signs, the island nation's economy will not please investors. For example, data on retail sales were published in New Zealand. In the third quarter, the consumer spending indicator fell by 0.1% q/q after a decline of 1.2% in the previous quarter.

Analysts at Commerzbank and other financial institutions predict further rate cuts in February and April 2025, though the pace remains uncertain. Some expect a 25-basis-point reduction in February, while others anticipate 50 basis points, with another easing round likely in April.

The wording of the accompanying statement and the rhetoric of RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr will provide traders with clues on the central bank's path forward. If the RBNZ emphasizes slowing inflation and economic growth, the kiwi will face pressure as markets price in a 50-point cut in February and an additional 25-point cut in April. However, the kiwi could strengthen if the central bank focuses on international risks (geopolitical tensions, impending trade wars, etc.) that could impact inflation, allowing NZD/USD buyers to stage a robust correction.

Even in the case of a corrective bounce, any rallies should be seen as opportunities to open short positions. On the MN time frame, the pair remains in a pronounced bearish trend for the second consecutive month, driven by the strong U.S. dollar and slowing Chinese economic growth. There are no compelling reasons for a trend reversal, even if the RBNZ refrains from signaling a 50-point cut in February.

Technically, on higher time frames, the pair is trading between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands. On the weekly chart, the Ichimoku indicator has formed a bearish "Parade of Lines" signal, confirming the priority of short positions.

  • Near-term target: 0.5790 (lower Bollinger Band on the D1 time frame).
  • Primary target: 0.5740 (lower Bollinger Band on the W1 time frame).
Irina Manzenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Analytical News
US Market News Digest for March 20 Although the S&P 500 shows optimism, its growth since March 14 has been viewed as more of a correction. A move toward the target range of 5,881–5,910 becomes more likely
Ekaterina Kiseleva
12:26 2025-03-20 +02:00
1855
Technical analysis
EUR/USD. March 20th. Bears Failed to Regain Control Once Again On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 1.0944 level for the third time and reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, declining toward the 200.0% Fibonacci level at 1.0857
Samir Klishi
11:41 2025-03-20 +02:00
1720
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is experiencing a slight decline after reaching a new all-time high, remaining in a defensive stance. Currently, bullish traders are exercising caution, as indicated by overbought conditions
Irina Yanina 10:29 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Fed's message music to bulls' ears

The Fed is not throwing a lifeline to the S&P 500, but does it need one? Lifelines are for those drowning, while the market is merely spooked by a fleeting
Marek Petkovich 09:05 2025-03-20 UTC+2

Markets Are Stuck in a Vicious Circle with No Exit in Sight (Potential Decline for Bitcoin and Gold Prices)

The markets are currently experiencing significant shock due to a prevailing negative sentiment that looms over them like a heavy burden, with no resolution in sight. Given this situation
Pati Gani 08:23 2025-03-20 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on March 20? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

There are several macroeconomic events scheduled for Thursday, primarily in the UK. Key reports will include the unemployment rate, changes in the number of unemployed individuals, and average wages
Paolo Greco 07:15 2025-03-20 UTC+2

GBP/USD Pair Overview – March 20: Bank of England Vote May Cool Bullish Sentiment

The GBP/USD currency pair traded very calmly on Wednesday, considering the evening movements. As a reminder, we are not analyzing the results of the Federal Reserve meeting
Paolo Greco 02:18 2025-03-20 UTC+2

EUR/USD Pair Overview – March 20: The Euro Holds a Strong Leadership Position

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced a slight pullback but failed to consolidate below the moving average line. As per tradition, we will not analyze the outcome
Paolo Greco 02:18 2025-03-20 UTC+2

EUR/JPY: Mixed Outcomes of the Bank of Japan's March Meeting and Germany's "Debt Brake" Reform

The Bank of Japan has concluded its March policy meeting, delivering the most anticipated baseline scenario—keeping all monetary policy parameters unchanged. Market participants closely followed the statements of BOJ Governor
Irina Manzenko 23:43 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Euro Hits the Ceiling

Bets are now closed, ladies and gentlemen! Many have already played out. The EUR/USD's hesitation to rise following the Bundestag's approval of Friedrich Merz's fiscal stimulus package indicates that this
Marek Petkovich 23:43 2025-03-19 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair is showing signs of recovery for the second consecutive day after a recent decline, rebounding from a two-week low around 1.4260. Spot prices have climbed above
Irina Yanina 10:16 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Stock market pays dear cost for Washington's rhetoric

The boomerang effect: what goes around, comes around The US is retreating from globalization, and it is only a matter of time before it faces the consequences. According
Marek Petkovich 09:51 2025-03-19 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 02:00 2025-03-21 UTC--4
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 20. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
09:08 2025-03-20
Forecast
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-03-21 UTC--4
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 20. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
09:07 2025-03-20
Forecast
Relevance up to 02:00 2025-03-21 UTC--4
GBP/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on March 20. Review of Yesterday's Forex Trades
09:07 2025-03-20
Forecast
Relevance up to 22:00 2025-03-20 UTC--4
EUR/USD Forecast for March 20, 2025
04:37 2025-03-20
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 04:00 2025-03-21 UTC--4
Forecast for GBP/USD on March 20, 2025
11:36 2025-03-20
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.