Analysis of Friday's Trades

1H Chart of EUR/USD

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair attempted to continue its correction, but by the end of the week, traders were more focused on taking a break than engaging in active trading. It's worth noting that the U.S. celebrated Thanksgiving, a national holiday, which easily explains the low market activity. As a result, the euro failed to consolidate above the 1.0596 level for the second time. Even the Eurozone inflation report, which indicated acceleration but within the forecasted range, did not help. Thus, this report can be considered bland and unremarkable. Overall, the pair continues to correct, but since this is a correction, it could end at any moment. We remain skeptical about trading apparent corrections, even though they can last long. This week, there will be many significant macroeconomic events in the U.S., making strong growth and sharp declines in the pair possible.

5M Chart of EUR/USD

One sell signal was formed on Friday's 5-minute timeframe. The price bounced off the 1.0596 level with remarkable precision, so novice traders could open short positions during the European trading session. Unfortunately, the price did not reach the nearest target level due to low volatility, but some profit could still be gained from this trade.

Trading Strategy for Monday:

On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair still attempts to correct, but the euro can only count on a slight or slow upward movement. In the coming days, the pullback may continue, as on the weekly timeframe, the price has reached the target we mentioned several times — the lower boundary of the horizontal channel. However, this does not guarantee a new upward trend.

On Monday, we believe the pair's quotes could continue rising, but important reports are expected today, and the price has already bounced off the 1.0596 level twice.

On the 5-minute timeframe, the following levels should be considered: 1.0269–1.0277, 1.0334–1.0359, 1.0433–1.0451, 1.0526, 1.0596, 1.0678, 1.0726–1.0733, 1.0797–1.0804, 1.0845–1.0851, 1.0888–1.0896. On Monday, scheduled events in the Eurozone include a speech by Christine Lagarde and reports on manufacturing sector activity and unemployment rates. However, we believe the most important event will be the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the U.S.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.