Trade analysis and tips for the Japanese yen

The price test of 156.79 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming the signal to sell the dollar and resulting in a drop in the pair by more than 200 points. The interventions initiated by the Bank of Japan during Asian trading are still ongoing. Although Japanese policymakers are currently silent about what is happening, dollar declines of 200-250 points indicate active actions by the regulator, as I have repeatedly warned. However, the cheaper the dollar becomes, the more actively it is bought back, maintaining parity in the market and high volatility. Most likely, the second half of the day will be calmer, especially in the absence of important US statistics. As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY when the entry point reaches around 156.53 (green line on the chart), with the target of rising to 157.59 (thicker green line on the chart). At the level of 157.59, I will exit the purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction from the level). Today, the rise of the pair can be expected within the bullish market. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price of 155.75 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround upwards. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 156.53 and 157.59.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after the level of 155.75 is updated (red line on the chart), leading to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 154.85, where I will exit the sales and immediately open purchases in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return in case of central bank intervention. Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price of 156.53 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a reverse market turnaround downwards. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 155.75 and 154.85.

On the chart:

Thin green line - entry price, at which the trading instrument can be bought.

Thick green line - expected price, where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be fixed independently, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line - entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.

Thick red line - expected price, where Take Profit can be set or profits can be fixed independently, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD indicator. When entering the market, following the overbought and oversold zones is important.

Important. Beginner traders in the forex market must be cautious when making trading decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is necessary to have a clear trading plan similar to the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.