Analysis of Trades and Trading Recommendations for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 155.25 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pair's upward potential, especially under the pressure on the dollar during the first half of the day. Shortly afterward, a second test of the 155.25 level occurred while the MACD was in the overbought zone, leading to the execution of Scenario #2 for selling and a decline of the dollar by more than 40 pips. Yesterday's comments by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda led to a drop in the dollar and a strengthening of the yen. However, sellers failed to maintain control of the market for long. Today, it is better to buy from lower levels and to avoid rushing into sales. The sustained pressure on the dollar could lead to a more significant downward movement in the pair during the first half of the day. I will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2 for the intraday strategy.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today at the 154.68 level (green line on the chart) with a target of 155.33 (thicker green line on the chart). At 155.33, I intend to exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (expecting a pullback of 30–35 pips from the entry point). A rise in the pair is possible, but it's better to buy on corrections. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the pair tests the 154.25 level twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 154.68 and 155.33 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today only after breaking below the 154.25 level (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 153.74, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open buys in the opposite direction (expecting a rebound of 20–25 pips from the level). Downward pressure on the pair may persist during the first half of the day. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 154.68 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 154.25 and 153.74 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Notes for Beginner Forex Traders:

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.