Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price at 1.0577 occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved substantially below the zero line, confirming the correct entry point for selling the euro. As a result, the pair dropped to the target level of 1.0539, yielding a profit of about 35 points. A reboufrom 1.0539 provided an additional 20 points of profit. In the second half of the day, U.S. data on building permits and new housing starts will be released. If the data exceeds expectations, we may see short-term U.S. dollar strength, attracting buyers and boosting market sentiment.

However, it's important to note that the market may react quickly—sometimes excessively—creating both profit opportunities and risks. Given the current economic situation, with U.S. inflation remaining high, any positive signals from the construction sector could impact perceptions of economic stability. Investors will look for confirmation that the economic recovery is gaining momentum, preparing for potential changes in monetary policy, possibly involving further easing. For intraday strategy, I will focus on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to buy the euro today if the price reaches around 1.0584 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0625. I will exit at 1.0625 and sell the euro back, aiming for a 30-35 point move in the opposite direction. Strong euro growth today is unlikely.Note: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and starting its upward move.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the euro today if the price tests 1.0543 twice, with the MACD indicator in the oversold zone. This scenario would limit the pair's downward potential and prompt an upward reversal. Expected targets are resistance levels at 1.0584 and 1.0625.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell the euro if the price updates the 1.0543 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0506, where I will exit and buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 point rebound. Pressure on the pair will likely return if strong U.S. data supports the bearish market.Note: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and starting its downward move.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.0584 twice, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This scenario would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal, targeting support levels at 1.0543 and 1.0506.

Chart Key Indicators

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying.
• Thick green line: Target price for locking in profits; further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling.
• Thick red line: Target price for locking in profits; further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator: Use the overbought and oversold zones as a guide when entering trades.

Important Note: Beginner Forex traders should approach market entry decisions cautiously. Avoid trading during the release of major fundamental reports to minimize exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news events, always use stop orders to limit potential losses. Without proper stop orders, you risk losing your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without a sound money management strategy.

Finally, always trade with a clear plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on the current market situation are often a losing strategy for intraday traders.